Challenges for Sustained Observing and Forecasting Systems in the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstream services in response to the needs of the heavily populated Mediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level of Mediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN's Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system

Towards an operational system for oil spill forecast in Spanish waters: initial development and implementation test

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Operational evaluation of the Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre products: Implementation and Results

A web-based validation platform has been developed at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for the Near Real Time validation of the MyOcean-Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre products (Med-MFC). A network for the collection of the in-situ observations, the nested sub-basin forecasting systems model data (provided by the partners of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network, MOON) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) satellite data has been developed and is updated every day with the new available data. The network collects temperature, salinity, currents and sea level data. The validation of the biogeochemical forecast products is done by use of ocean colour satellite data produced for the Mediterranean Sea. All the data are organized in an ad hoc database interfaced with a dedicated software which allows interactive visualizations and statistics (CalVal SW). This tool allows to evaluate NRT products by comparison with independent observations for the first time. The heterogeneous distribution and the scarcity of moored observations reflect with large areas uncovered with measurements. Nevertheless, the evaluation of the forecast at the locations of observations could be very useful to discover sub-regions where the model performances can be improved, thus yielding an important complement to the basin-mean statistics regularly calculated for the Mediterranean MFC products using semi-independent observations

Outcomes of Patients Presenting with Mild Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: Insights from the LUNG SAFE Study

WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW ABOUT THIS TOPIC: Hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome is approximately 40%, but mortality and trajectory in "mild" acute respiratory distress syndrome (classified only since 2012) are unknown, and many cases are not detected WHAT THIS ARTICLE TELLS US THAT IS NEW: Approximately 80% of cases of mild acute respiratory distress syndrome persist or worsen in the first week; in all cases, the mortality is substantial (30%) and is higher (37%) in those in whom the acute respiratory distress syndrome progresses BACKGROUND:: Patients with initial mild acute respiratory distress syndrome are often underrecognized and mistakenly considered to have low disease severity and favorable outcomes. They represent a relatively poorly characterized population that was only classified as having acute respiratory distress syndrome in the most recent definition. Our primary objective was to describe the natural course and the factors associated with worsening and mortality in this population. METHODS: This study analyzed patients from the international prospective Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE) who had initial mild acute respiratory distress syndrome in the first day of inclusion. This study defined three groups based on the evolution of severity in the first week: "worsening" if moderate or severe acute respiratory distress syndrome criteria were met, "persisting" if mild acute respiratory distress syndrome criteria were the most severe category, and "improving" if patients did not fulfill acute respiratory distress syndrome criteria any more from day 2. RESULTS: Among 580 patients with initial mild acute respiratory distress syndrome, 18% (103 of 580) continuously improved, 36% (210 of 580) had persisting mild acute respiratory distress syndrome, and 46% (267 of 580) worsened in the first week after acute respiratory distress syndrome onset. Global in-hospital mortality was 30% (172 of 576; specifically 10% [10 of 101], 30% [63 of 210], and 37% [99 of 265] for patients with improving, persisting, and worsening acute respiratory distress syndrome, respectively), and the median (interquartile range) duration of mechanical ventilation was 7 (4, 14) days (specifically 3 [2, 5], 7 [4, 14], and 11 [6, 18] days for patients with improving, persisting, and worsening acute respiratory distress syndrome, respectively). Admissions for trauma or pneumonia, higher nonpulmonary sequential organ failure assessment score, lower partial pressure of alveolar oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen, and higher peak inspiratory pressure were independently associated with worsening. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients with initial mild acute respiratory distress syndrome continue to fulfill acute respiratory distress syndrome criteria in the first week, and nearly half worsen in severity. Their mortality is high, particularly in patients with worsening acute respiratory distress syndrome, emphasizing the need for close attention to this patient population

Correction to: Potentially modifiable factors contributing to outcome from acute respiratory distress syndrome: the LUNG SAFE study

Correction to: Intensive Care Med (2016) 42:1865\u20131876 DOI 10.1007/s00134-016-4571-